Kst/Befunde

Overview

• Problematic text parallels can be found in the following chapters (state of analysis: XXX):

• 1 Introduction [10]

• 1.1 Background to the refugee crisis [12] [11]
• 1.2 Refugee agreement with Turkey [12]
• 1.3 Effects of the refugee crisis in Germany [14]

• 2 Objectives [16]

• 2.1 Research question and theses [19]
• 2.2 Academic contribution [20]
• 2.3 Structure of work [21]

• 3 Overview of literature 23]

• 3.1 Qualification structure of refugees 23]

• 3.1.1 Survey by the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees 23]
• 3.1.2 Age and gender structure of refugees 23]
• 3.1.3 Qualification structure 24]
• 3.1.4 Occupation in the country of origin 26]
• 3.1.5 Research deficits 29]
• 3.1.6 Summary 29]

• 3.2 Studies on labour market effects of migration 30]

• 3.2.1 International studies 30]
• 3.2.2 European studies 31]
• 3.2.3 Studies related to the German labour market 31]

• 3.2.3.1 Macroeconomic impact of migration 33]
• 3.2.3.2 Effects of the wars in Yugoslavia on the labour market 34]

• 3.2.4 Research deficits 39]
• 3.2.5 Summary 40]

• 3.3 Studies on the fiscal effects of refugee flows [41] [40]

• 3.3.1 International studies [41] [40]
• 3.3.2 National studies 42]
• 3.3.3 Research deficits [46] [45]
• 3.3.4 Summary [46]

• 3.4 Immigration and labour market theory 47]

• 3.4.1 Immigration according to neoclassical labour market theory 48]
• 3.4.2 Labour supply shock 53]

• 3.4.2.1 Labour supply shock with variable capital 55]
• 3.4.2.2 Labour supply shock in heterogeneous work 57]

• 3.4.3 Summary 58]

• 3.5 Immigration and macroeconomic impacts 59]

• 3.5.1 Immigration from the perspective of the Solow growth model 59]
• 3.5.2 Assumptions of the Solow growth model 59]
• 3.5.3 Growth processes 61]
• 3.5.4 Convergence to balance 63]
• 3.5.5 Effects of population growth 63]
• 3.5.6 Summary consideration 66]
• 3.5.7 Criticism and further development 66]
• 3.5.8 Summary 66]

• 3.6 Summary of literature overview 67]

• 4 Data and Methods [72]

• 4.1 Data concerning the educational structure [72]

• 4.1.1 Interviewing refugees [72]
• 4.1.2 Microcensus data of the North Rhine-Westphalian population [72]
• 4.1.3 Methods [73]

• 4.1.3.1 Comparative analysis [73]
• 4.1.3.2 Kruskal-Wallis test [74]
• 4.1.3.3 Two samples Mann-Whitney-U test [74]
• 4.1.3.4 X2 test [74]
• 4.1.3.5 Exact tests according to Fisher [74]
• 4.1.3.6 Multiple Testing [75]

• 4.1.4 Heterogeneity [75]

• 4.2 Employment effects [75]

• 4.2.1 Data from the Federal Employment Agency [75]
• 4.2.2 Data validity [77]
• 4.2.3 Methods [77]
• 4.2.4 Statistical software and other analytical frameworks [78]

• 5 Results 79]

• 5.1 Educational structure of refugees 79]

• 5.1.1 Age and gender structure of refugees 79]

• 5.1.1.1 All countries of origin 79]
• 5.1.1.2 Top 3 countries of origin (Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan) 81]

• 5.1.2 Qualification structure 84]

• 5.1.2.1 School education in all countries of origin 84]
• 5.1.2.2 School education in the top 3 countries of origin (Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan) 85]
• 5.1.2.3 Education of all countries of origin by gender 85]
• 5.1.2.4 Education of the top 3 countries of origin by gender (Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan) 86]
• 5.1.2.5 Vocational and university education in all countries of origin 88]
• 5.1.2.6 Vocational and university education in the top 3 countries of origin (Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan) 89]

• 5.1.3 Differences in the qualification structure of the top 3 countries of origin 91]

• 5.1.3.1 Educational structure 91]
• 5.1.3.2 Gender distribution 92]
• 5.1.3.3 Age structure 93]
• 5.1.3.4 Educational structure between the genders 93]
• 5.1.3.5 Education and training 95]

• 5.1.4 Heterogeneity of the labour supply 97]
• 5.1.5 Summary 103]

• 5.2 Analysis of unemployment rate and refugee numbers 105]

• 5.2.1 Box Jenkins Approach to testing the Orders of the ARIMA Model 108]
• 5.2.2 ARIMA models to investigate the influence of refugee numbers on the unemployment rate 110]

• 5.2.2.1 Refugees (non-Europeans) 110]
• 5.2.2.2 Syrians 111]
• 5.2.2.3 Iraqis 113]
• 5.2.2.4 Afghans 114]

• 5.2.3 Summary 116]

• 5.3 Analysis of the unemployment rate and vocational training of refugees 117]

• 5.3.1 Box Jenkins Approach to testing the Orders of the ARIMA Model 117]
• 5.3.2 ARIMA Models to analyse the impact of vocational training of refugees on the unemployment rate 119]

• 5.3.2.1 Refugees (non Europeans) 119]
• 5.3.2.2 Syrians 120]
• 5.3.2.3 Iraqis 121]
• 5.3.2.4 Afghans 122]

• 5.3.3 Summary 124]

• 5.4 Analysis of median income and refugee numbers 125]

• 5.4.1 Box Jenkins Approach to testing the Order of the ARIMA Model 127]
• 5.4.2 ARIMA models to investigate the influence of refugee numbers on median income 129]

• 5.4.2.1 Refugees (non Europeans) 129]
• 5.4.2.2 Syrians 131]
• 5.4.2.3 Iraqis 132]
• 5.4.2.4 Afghans 133]

• 5.4.3 Summary 135]

• 6 Discussion [136]

• 6.1 Educational structure of refugees [136]
• 6.2 Education and fiscal effects [138]

• 6.2.1 Self-selection and selective immigration policy [139]
• 6.2.2 Supply- and demand-oriented management of immigration [140]
• 6.2.3 Statutory regulations [141]

• 6.3 Labour market effects [142]

• 6.3.1 Impact on the unemployment rate [142]
• 6.3.2 Residence requirement in North Rhine-Westphalia [144]
• 6.3.3 Impact on wage level [146]

• 6.4 Summary [147]

• 7 Policy recommendation [148]

• 7.1 Asylum policy measures [148]
• 7.2 Labour market policy measures to promote mobility [148]
• 7.3 Recognation of qualifications [149]
• 7.4 Integration policy [149]
• 7.5 Educational policy [149]
• 7.6 Immigration policy [150]
• 7.7 Repayment of debts [150]

• 8 Conclusion [142]

• 9 References [154]

• 10 List of figures [162]

• 11 List of tables [166]

• Attachments [168]

• A Asylum system Germany [169]

• B Asylum procedure North Rhine-Westphalia [170]

• C Questionnaire on the educational structure of refugees [171].

Prominent findings

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Source issues

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• Kassen (2016): ...

• Out of XX sources identified for documented text parallels, XX of them are not mentioned in the thesis at all.

Other observations

Critical reception by the thesis supervisor and the opponents

Since the reviews of the supervisor of the doctoral thesis and of the three opponents were also published online, this allows to cite their critical comments and overall evaluations:

• doc. Ing. Petr Blížkovský. Ph.D.: Stanovisko školitele k průběhu studia a disertační práci doktorandky K[..] S[..] (2019-10-15) (PDF)

• "Práce byla vypracována dle mého názoru podle standardů kladených na disertační práci. [...] Doktorandka používala adekvátních statistických metod vyhodnocení dat a výsledky své práce přehledně presentovala a diskutovala.
  Předložená práce je zpracována na vysoké úrovni, autorka prokázala rozsáhlou znalost řešené problematiky, splňuje po obsahové i formální stránce veškeré náležitosti kladené na práci tohoto typu."
  (translation via DeepL.com: "In my opinion, the thesis was prepared according to the standards set for a dissertation. [...] The PhD student used adequate statistical methods of data evaluation and presented and discussed the results of her work clearly.
  The submitted thesis is prepared at a high level, the author has demonstrated extensive knowledge of the subject, it meets all the requirements for a thesis of this type in terms of content and form.")

• prof. Ing. Jiřina Jílková, CSc.: Oponentní posudek na disertační práci (2019-09-20) (PDF)

• "V disertační práci pak autorka systematicky postupuje podle obecně přjatých principů pro zpracování vědeckých prací." (p. 1)
  (translation via DeepL.com: "In the dissertation, the author systematically follows the generally accepted principles for the preparation of scientific papers.")

• "Formální stránka disertace: úroveň je dobrá v textu i v grafických prezentacích, v textu se občas vyskytují drobné nejasnosti či neobratné formulace." (p. 2)
  (translation via DeepL.com: "Formal aspect of the dissertation: the level is good in the text and in the graphic presentations, with occasional minor ambiguities or clumsy wording in the text.")

• "Předložená disertační práce splňuje podmínky a požadavky na disertační práci kladené. V případě úspěšné obhajoby navrhuji udělené akademického titulu philosophiae doctor – Ph. D." (p. 3)
  (translation via DeepL.com: "The submitted dissertation meets the conditions and requirements for a dissertation. In case of successful defence, I propose to award the academic degree of philosophiae doctor – Ph. D.")

• doc. lng. Milan Palát, Ph.D.: Opponent review of dissertation thesis (2019-09-16) (PDF)

• "[Conclusion:] The dissertation of K[..] S[..] fulfils the elementary requirements on dissertations of a doctoral study programme. The dissertation thesis has clearly defined objectives and adequate research methods. Applied methodological approach and achieved results enable to answer research questions and verify hypotheses, which have been set, and by its contents it brings new knowledge related to the research topic. The results proved the capability of independent research and represent a good contribution to theory, practice and education.
  The candidate proved an acceptable theoretical and methodological background, and ability to apply it in practical application. Taking into account all the mentioned aspects of the dissertation thesis, the presented dissertation fulfils the criteria and I recommend it to be defended." (p. [2])

• doc René Leray, Ph.D.: Opponent review of Doctoral Dissertation (2019-08-26) (PDF)

• "[Structure and methodology:] The author is clearly highly qualified concerning the field of existing econometric models and tests. The overview of literature is equally satisfactory including the fiscal effects [...]" (p. [1] f.)

• "[Overall assessment:] Thesis brings a very interesting review of what econometric models can (and cannot) tell us about their capability for analyzing short duration phenomena and the author was right stressing their limitation (frequently because of a lack of valuable statistical data and series), this review is not sufficient by itself for producing sound conclusions and much more recommendations." (p. [2])

Declaration, Regulations

• In the "Statutory declaration" (p. [3]), the author states:
  "Herewith I declare that I have written my final thesis: [...] by myself and all sources and data used are quoted in the list of references."

• The "Study and Examination Regulations of Mendel University in Brno" (PDF) valid at the time of submission specify:

• Article 24
  Doctoral study program
  "(1) Doctoral study programmes are, pursuant to Section 47 of the Act, focused on scientific research and independent creative activity in the fields of research or development or on independent theoretical and creative activity in the arts."

• Article 33
  State doctoral examinations
  "(1) The state doctoral examinations verify the ability and readiness for independent activity in the field of research or development or for independent theoretical and creative activities in the arts."

• Article 34
  Dissertation
  "(1) A dissertation must include original and published results or results received for publication."

• The Czech Republic's "The Higher Education Act" of 22 April 1998 (PDF, current version, published 31 August, 2018) specifies in section 47c
  The Proceeding at a Public Higher Education Institution concerning Statement of Invalidity of State Examinations or Their Parts or the Thesis Defence:

• "(2) The Rector shall express his/her decision of invalidity of the state examinations or their parts or of the thesis defence if the person whose state examinations or their parts or whose thesis defence is concerned:

• [...]
• b) has not met or only apparently met the conditions or requirements presented by the Higher Education Act, the degree programme, and the Study and Examination Regulations for completing the state examination or its parts or the dissertation defence because of an unauthorized usage of another person’s work in gross violation of legal provisions concerning copyright protection ³²⁾ [bold mark not in original] or because of another intentional activity not mentioned in a), in case of permanent or repeated violation of good manners or in such a case where the possibility of gaining standard knowledge and skills by participants of the given degree programme was significantly disturbed.

• (3) In case of failing to meet conditions for completion of state examinations or their parts or the dissertation defence in accordance with Paragraphs (2) a) and b), such case is deemed to present an objective state of discontinuity between the actual state of affairs and facts confirmed by the higher education diploma when a higher education diploma has been issued without the recipient having passed the state examinations or its parts or the thesis defence.
• (4) Proceedings for expressing the invalidity are initiated ex officio. It can be initiated by the Rector as well:

• a) at the very latest 3 years after the legal effect of the decision by which a particular person was sentenced for an intentional crime, if the case as per Paragraph (2) a) applies; or
• b) at the very latest 3 years from the date of performing the state examination or apparently performing the state examination or its last part or of the Doctoral thesis defence [bold mark not in original], if it is the case pursuant to Paragraph (2) b).

• (5) If the Rector has not found any reasons for the statement of invalidity of the thesis defence or its part in accordance with (2), proceedings for the statement of the invalidity shall be discontinued."

Miscellaneous

• [TOC nicht immer verlässlich, div. Abweichungen bei Seitenzahlen und wohl auch Überschriften gegenüber Haupttext, Bsp. ...]

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• In 2013, a VroniPlag Wiki analysis was published on a doctoral thesis, which was submitted by a person with an identical name to a german university in 2002; see → [Link Ks].

Statistics

• Currently there are 82 reviewed fragments documented that are considered to be violations of citation rules. For 78 of them there is no reference given to the source used („Übersetzungsplagiate“, „Verschleierungen“ and „Komplettplagiate“). For 4 fragments the source is given, but the extent of the used text is not made clear („Bauernopfer“).
• The publication has 142 pages that have been analyzed. On a total of 64 of these pages violations of citation rules have been documented. This represents a percentage of 45.1%. The 142 analyzed pages break down with respect to the amount of text parallels encountered as follows:

Percentage text parallels	Number of pages
No text parallels documented	78
0%-50% text parallels	16
50%-75% text parallels	14
75%-100% text parallels	34

From these statistics an extrapolation of the amount of text of the publication under investigation that has been documented as problematic can be estimated (conservatively) as about 26% of the main part of the publication.

• In all, text was taken from 20 sources.

Illustration

The following chart illustrates the amount and the distribution of the text parallel findings. The colours show the type of plagiarism diagnosed:

• [...]

(state of analysis: XXX)