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Autor     Peter Coy
Titel    Exploiting Uncertainty - The "real-options" revolution in decision-making
Zeitschrift    Business Week
Datum    7. June 1999
URL    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/1999-06-06/exploiting-uncertainty, https://www.simon.rochester.edu/fac/raith/Smith-Teaching/Fin%20413/Article%20Handouts%20in%20class/1-Expoiting%20Uncertainty%20-%20BusinessWeek%201999.pdf

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[1.] Svr/Fragment 074 19 - Diskussion
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A revolutionary concept is emerging in corporate finance called real options theory. In a nutshell, it says that when the future is highly uncertain, it pays to have a broad range of options open. A revolutionary concept in corporate finance called “real options theory.” In a nutshell, it says that when the future is highly uncertain, it pays to have a broad range of options open.
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[2.] Svr/Fragment 085 23 - Diskussion
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Coy 1999, Fragment, Gesichtet, SMWFragment, Schutzlevel sysop, Svr, Verschleierung

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Options Pricing Models are too complex to be worthwhile for minor decisions. And they are not useful for projects that require a full commitment right away, since the value of an option lies in the ability to spend a little now and decide later whether to forge ahead. It’s too complex to be worthwhile for minor decisions. And it’s not useful for projects that require a full commitment right away, since the value of an option lies in the ability to spend a little now and decide later whether to forge ahead.
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[3.] Svr/Fragment 086 14 - Diskussion
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Coy 1999, Fragment, Gesichtet, SMWFragment, Schutzlevel sysop, Svr, Verschleierung

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Seite: 86, Zeilen: 14-17, 27-31
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Seite(n): 118, 119, Zeilen: 118: right col. 1 ff., 39 ff.; 119: right col. 1 ff.
Experts had developed rules of thumb that simplify the formidable math behind options valuation, while making real options applicable in a broader range of situations. And consulting firms are aware of this technique as the Next Big Thing to sell clients.

[...]

A traditional calculation of net present value discounts projected costs and revenues and examines the project as a whole and concludes it is a no-go, in case the NPV is negative. The real-options analysis will break the same project into stages and may conclude that it makes sense to fund at least the first stage. Real options analysis rewards flexibility, and that is what makes it more appropriate for [strategic investments with high levels of uncertainty, than today's standard decision-making tool, the NPV method.]

[page 118]

Real-options analysis rewards flexibility—and that's what makes it better than today's standard decision-making tool, "net present value." [...]

Experts have developed rules of thumb that simplify the formidable math behind options valuation, while making real options applicable in a broader range of situations. And consulting firms have latched on to the technique as the Next Big Thing to sell to clients.

[page 119]

THE NEW MATH IN ACTION

[...]

A traditional calculation of net present value, which discounts projected costs and revenues into today’s dollars, examines the project as a whole and concludes it’s a no-go. But a real-options analysis breaks it into stages and concludes it makes sense to fund at least the first stage.

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